1. Did they use the numbering exception? That would have added to the "obvious a kick would be made".
2. Once the potential punter dropped back nine yards, took the snap and immediately held the ball in front of him to drop the ball, it sure seemed pretty obvious a kick was going to be made. Besides, he didn't rule a kick wasn't obvious, he ruled it wasn't RTK because they weren't in scrimmage kick formation, which is applying the wrong criterium. If it wasn't obvious a kick was going to be made, why did he drop the flag in the first place? Oh yeah, because the kicker was roughed! He wasn't waving off someone else's flag, the R dropped the flag because he saw the kicker was roughed. He then thought, "Wait, they weren't in a scrimmage kick formation, so no foul." That line of thinking was incorrect. If he didn't judge that the kick was going to be obvious, he never should have dropped the flag in the first place, because he thought it wasn't obvious. By dropping the flag, he judged that it WAS obvious a kick was going to be made.
3. It all became moot when the kicking team recovered the muff! At that point, the much smarter announcement would have been: RTK, declined, first down.