"A player “gains possession’’ when he secures the ball firmly by holding or controlling it while contacting the ground inbounds. The ball is then in player possession."
"To fumble the ball is to lose player possession by any act other than passing, kicking or successful handing (A.R. 2-19-2-I and A.R. 4-1-3-I). The status of the ball is a fumble."
Looks like the QB definitely fumbled.
"A live ball is a ball in play. A pass, kick or fumble that has not yet touched the ground is a live ball in flight."
"To catch a ball means that a player:
1. Secures control of a live ball in flight with his hands or arms before
the ball touches the ground, and
2. Touches the ground in bounds with any part of his body, and then
3. Maintains control of the ball long enough to enable him to perform
an act common to the game, i.e., long enough to pitch or hand the ball,
advance it, avoid or ward off an opponent, etc., and
4. Satisfies paragraphs b, c, and d below."
Looks to me like the QB did not fulfill the requirements of catching a live ball in flight and there fore the ball was still alive when it hit the ground.