Incomplete. He did not maintain control throughout the completetion of the catch coming to the ground. He is hit immediately after coming to the ground jarring the ball loose. I have always heard that this is always incomplete. Also importantly, this is close, but is clearly forward...when it doubt it is forward and incomplete.
On a catch/fumble, or backwards pass...this is a tough tough call in real time. Indeed the player who recovered the ball did touch his toe out of bounds before recovering. However, the focus will be on watching the ball and accordingly the upper part of the the body. I doubt there are many officials out there who would see this toe touch in real time.
This game apparently had at least a couple great learning point plays!
Always good stuff Mike, keep 'em coming!