Do we swallow our whistle due to "loss aversion"?

[busman]

The University of Chicago economics professor that did the research that led to the infamous "no punt" philosophy practiced by one of our locals (and featured on HBO's Inside Sports) was on a local talk show today.  He attributes punting almost every fourth down to a trait in human nature called "loss aversion" - we would rather play to not lose as opposed to play to win.  We hear this all the time when teams with the lead get super conservative in the fourth quarter.  Later in the discussion, he talked about officials "swallowing their whistles" in crucial situations due to the same reason - we would rather explain a no-call than a wrong call.  As an example, he points to baseball umpires - a 3-0 pitch is almost always a strike and an 0-2 pitch is almost always a ball. He claims research shows the strike zone for the 3-0 pitch is almost 100 sq. inches larger than the zone for an 0-2 pitch.

Do you believe it?  We always hear that we "let the players decide the game".  Do we pass on the DPI call in the fourth quarter that we would call in the second quarter?  Do we call holding less in the red zone than in the middle of the field?  What say you?

[mccormicw]

I say it happens all the time.  I can say that I have unfortunately been guilty of this.

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[HLinNC]

My booking agent puts it best.  "I don't get phone calls about calls you DIDN'T make".

[cougar729]

This is a pretty interesting read about those kinds of topics, the author I believe is the same guy from Univ. of Chicago

[ECILLJ]

The statistics regarding strikes and balls on certain pitch counts is believable, but are all variables are being considered? A coach will usually signal for a batter to take a 3 - 0 pitch and the pitcher knows this and may have less concerns about finding the strike zone. The same can be said with an 0 - 2 pitch, the batter will normally protect the plate and swing at all close pitches, therefore, statistically leaving a high percentage of called pitches to be balls.

[busman]

Yes, that is the same guy.

[TampaSteve]

a DPI is a DPI or a hold is a hold, etc.

however, if it's 50-0, if the DPI or the hold is against the team up 50-0 that DPI or hold better be the biggest DPI or hold I've ever seen.
Additionally, if it's 50-0,the losing team is on offense & takes forever in the huddle, that's on their tab.  I'm not flagging DOG in that situation.  Of course, the R has discretion when to start RFP too.

[busman]

I know it's a football forum, BUT, re: 0-2 count:

It also seemed that every catcher in hs and college sets up outside the strike zone nowadays on an 0-2 count.  So, even if the pitcher hits the mitt, it's a ball.  Of course, no one in the dugouts have that perspective.

[AlUpstateNY]

Why would an official, pay any attention whatsoever about what an economics professor thinks about football?  Now if the guy had some really sound advice about a financial situation, I might be interested, but if he's really any good even in that regard, what's he doing as a professor rather than someone using his "expertise" to be successful in the real world.

As the saying goes, "Figures don't lie, but liars are really good at figuring".  Statistics are a tool, that in the hands of a skilled mechanic can be twisted to prove just about any result wanted.

[Osric Pureheart]

So what, the guy who's been winning games through always going for onside kicks, never punting and never returning punts because his statistics suggested it might be worth a try is just deluding himself?  Statistics may not offer 100% certainties, and sure you need to control for things, but there are a range of percentage points available between 0% and 100%.

(His team went on to win the Arky 4A state championship this year, incidentally.)

[fearlessleader]

Why would an official, pay any attention whatsoever about what an economics professor thinks about football?  Now if the guy had some really sound advice about a financial situation, I might be interested, but if he's really any good even in that regard, what's he doing as a professor rather than someone using his "expertise" to be successful in the real world.

As the saying goes, "Figures don't lie, but liars are really good at figuring".  Statistics are a tool, that in the hands of a skilled mechanic can be twisted to prove just about any result wanted.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli

[jjseikel]

As an example, he points to baseball umpires - a 3-0 pitch is almost always a strike and an 0-2 pitch is almost always a ball. He claims research shows the strike zone for the 3-0 pitch is almost 100 sq. inches larger than the zone for an 0-2 pitch.

I call BS. Strikes and outs move the game along and I won't pass up an opportunity to call a strike especially on 0-2. I've been told by partners that my eyes light up when there are 2 strikes and I get to punch a guy out.

This "Professor" needs to find something else to do with his time like maybe studying the mating habits of diabetic, albino frogs in southern Brazil!