I think this is one difference between NCAA and NF. In NCAA this is clearly an incomplete pass (TXMike gave the rule reference), but in NF this is a TD, right? (I'm not an NF official, though)
That's what we NFHS officials get the big bucks for - making a call like this.

2-4-1: A catch is the act of establishing player possession of a live ball which is in flight, and first contacting the ground inbounds while maintaining possession of the ball or having the forward progress of the player in possession stopped while the opponent is carrying the player who is in possession and inbounds.
While we don't have a "continuous control all the way to the ground" clause, if the ball comes out before he hits the ground, he likely didn't establish possession.