Author Topic: What is football's prognosis?  (Read 7532 times)

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Offline BrendanP

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What is football's prognosis?
« on: June 01, 2016, 07:18:25 PM »
I got to thinking about the prognosis of football, so to speak. Now that we've effectively elimated helmet collisions and put in all these new safety rules, what is our sport's future? Are we still doomed because of the negative publicity these past five years, or will the pendulum swing back before too much more damage is done?

Admittedly as I displayed here, I didn't really get it until I thought of it just today from an economic standpoint: regardless of the validity of the science behind brain injuries, the perception among what seems like the vast majority of parents these days is that letting your kid play football is akin to just dropping them on their head, that the result is the same. No high school football talent, means no college talent. Without college football, there's no pro football, and by the time I'm my dad's age, we'll have nothing but pickup games played by old-timers like me.

But is that really what's going to happen? Even in spite of the NFL, NCAA, and NFHS's efforts to make football as safe as possible, one journalist wrote in the Washington Post that his son was one of four boys who showed up for middle school football practice last summer. What is it going to take to get people to come around?

I'd like to think that the "My kids will never play football" crowd is just a very vocal minority. That sure, some athletes will find different sports, but the cultural attachment will keep churning out players for generations to come, just as they have for generations past. But when more and more parents are saying just that, even in spite of the best efforts of the highest governing bodies to address their concerns, what is our prognosis?

I can't remember when and where I read the article by an outgoing AD at a high school in Illinois with a prominent football program, but he said that even in spite of all the criticism and the scrutiny, that the forced evolution of football in recent years would allow it to not just survive but thrive.

Quite honestly, I think that if football does survive, it will be by those parents finding their faith in football again by seeing the positive impact it has on individuals and communities. From all the troubled youth who got into football and got their attitudes and behavior straightened out with the discipline and values the sport teaches, to the fact that football scholarships help send underprivileged kids to college instead of prison, the streets, or sometimes even the cemetery, football is not the boogeyman that many have made it out to be in recent years.

But even for those of us whose playing career was cut short, or who never played at all, for me and most others at some point, football has been a therapeutic release in tough times. Just in my lifetime, from the 9/11 attacks, the economic meltdown in the late-2000s, brutal and ugly times in politics, to personal issues, watching a football game, or better yet attending one, keeps your mind on something positive. A release from the negativity.

This past season served as exactly that for me. A family member had a health crisis and the family drama that ensued has been brutal. But every Thursday putting on the stripes gave me a 5 hour reprieve, filing through the turnstiles at Michigan Stadium gave me a three-hour window when nothing else in the world mattered but what's going on down on the gridiron.

I think we'll be fine in the long run, but unfortunately some irreparable damage has already been done. So what say you?
« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 07:21:01 PM by BrendanP »

Offline Ralph Damren

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Re: What is football's prognosis?
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2016, 07:45:23 AM »
When I was a kid (1950's).....

 MLB = only "wimps" wore batting helmets :P.....
             Runners didn't need helmets as they weren't batting ::)...
               Pitch counts were used only to determine who were good "two-strike hitters"....
                Early 60's - 2 HOF pitchers locked in 15 inning duel, Giants won 1-0...
                  both pitchers threw in excess of 250 pitches (2 strike foul balls weren't counted then)...
                   Neither pitcher's arm fell off..neither pitcher needed rest before next start....

 NHL = the only masks goalies wore were to a Halloween ball......
             Many teams didn't carry backup goalies....
                If a goalie made a save with his face, music would be played while his was stitched up....
                 Home team supplied a "house goalie" who would sub for either team if necessary....
                   Helmets on skaters were unheard of....

 NFHS = Grabbing the facemask didn't become illegal until 1957....
               Few players wore facemasks in 1957.....
                 Only "wimps" went to the water bucket back then......
                   Smelling salts was often the coach's best motivator....

IMHO, most sports have changed considerably over the years and ours did ,too. Most involved, on the high school level, now understand that safety is more important than points.

     OUR GAME WILL CHANGE

    OUR GAME WILL SURVIVE!!

stevestod

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Re: What is football's prognosis?
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2016, 10:47:09 AM »
Buddy Teevens on the Dan Patrick show:

Dartmouth Football coach Buddy Teevens joined the show to talk about a new Ivy League policy banning tackling in practice. Teevens said that his team hasn’t tackled in practice in five years and the results have been statistically better tackling. Teevens explained that they use robots to practice tackling. And he said that his practices closer resembled what they do in the NFL.

Teevens explained why the policy helps them tackle more effectively: “We practiced it more. A Dartmouth Football player will never tackle or be tackled by a teammate during his four-year career. But we average 500-800 tackles per year per defensive player. We do it in tackle circuits, on bags, a mobile tackling device that allows us to hit a moving target. …. We’re doing more tacking than most people in the country we just don’t hit each other.”

Teevens thinks this policy should spread further than just the Ivy League: “I tell coaches either we change the way we coach the game or we won’t have a game to coach. … If everyone stepped away from the paranoia about taking things away and say do we really need this much contact? Tackling is like riding a bike, you don’t forget how to do it.”

Shoottv

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Re: What is football's prognosis?
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2016, 04:25:44 PM »
 I think in the next 5 years we'll see changes that will lessen the brain injuries we are seeing now. Some will be rules changes and some will be technology changes.

My opinion is that rules will change to require more the wrap up tackle and some additional elimination of the high de-cleating hit. Players will be forced to go low and stop the shoulder and head hits. This is already happening.

Less or no tackling of humans in practice will become the norm.

We're really only 4 or 5 years into real qualitative scientific study into the concussive forces at play in the game. Accelerometers in helmets that measure and transmit data in real time will become commonplace allowing medical staffs to intervene quickly. Finally all players from HS and above will have baseline cognitive testing and retesting to evaluate silent trauma.

Finally as a teacher I'm already seeing kids with concussions treated totally differently than they were just 2 or 3 years ago. I had a kid this year that was on out for 2 weeks and limited class work for another 4 due to a lacrosse concussion. A year or 2 ago he would have been back at practice and school once the bump went down.

I think the NFL will flourish because there is a cost/benefit equation to be made for playing pro ball. However things will change at the lower levels.

We'll survive but the game will look different.

Offline HLinNC

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Re: What is football's prognosis?
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2016, 07:36:05 PM »
I think we will see the rise of flag football in younger age groups.  Frankly, I'm in favor of it.  I was shocked when our area youth association added 6 yr old "pups" football.  The kids can barely keep their helmets up.
Flag football allows the movement, schemes, and philosphies of football without the hitting and dangers inherent in that.

As schools begin to drop out due to lack of participation or expense, club/travel/AAU type football will take over.  Colleges will recruit that level.  Some smaller colleges or less successful programs will drop out of football.  The Power 5 cartel will survive and eventually develop feeder programs through the independent club teenage teams after they break away from the NCAA.

NFL Commissioner Condoleeza Rice will award a Super Bowl to London and Tokyo during her tenure and the first female professional player will kick off after winning the Women's World Cup in soccer.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 07:39:55 PM by HLinNC »

Offline Welpe

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What is football's prognosis?
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2016, 12:14:24 AM »
I don't think there's enough known about CTE yet to say for sure. The next decade will be telling IMO.

I do think football will become more popular at the club level and less as a scholastic sport. That may be a longer term development though.