You may be on to something Jason. I believe if we take the top 20% of crews in any Chapter and put them in games, you would not be able to tell the difference. Every Chapter in this State has a percentage of guys (probably close to the same percentage) who are the top of the pile. As you point out, when you have 16 crews, that top 20% is 3 or 4 crews. And when you have 80 crews, it is 16 or so. So a Chapter that is digging down into its 50th percentile to put officials on the field is not going to put out as good a product as those who do not need to dip below 20% to fill their slots.
But we will always come back to the same stumbling block...the perception that coaches have unlimited ability to pick the chapters and officials they want. Say what you will about the UIL but as I understand it, in certain sports , once the playoffs get to a certain stage, the schools no longer pick the officials. The UIL does. Sure that might have some issues but it seems it would ultimately be more equitable to the officials (if done properly) and would still guarantee games that are officiated at a high level.
Every crew in this state is capable of making mistakes at the wrong moment in the biggest games. The key is getting those crews who are less likely to make those mistakes.